College Feature
NCAA Roundtable: Dark Horse, National Championship Picks
by Rhiannon Potkey, 3 May 2024
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The NCAA Division I men’s and women’s championships begin this weekend with first and second round play at campus locations nationwide.
The brackets were released on Monday (men’s draw, women’s draw). Our panel of experts tackled a few questions about the tournament fields before all the action begins. Part I of our Roundtable ran on Thursday. Part II can be found below.
What teams in the men's and women's draws are your dark horse picks to make a deep run? Are there any upsets you see in either draw?
Colette Lewis, Zoo Tennis
With 29 of the 32 seeds making the Super Regionals last year, it's tough to pinpoint which unseeded teams could follow in the footsteps of the 2023 Stanford men and UCLA and Auburn women. The South Carolina, Stanford and San Diego men could make the Super Regionals, and the South Carolina and Oklahoma women are also threats to oust a seed.
It's splitting hairs to call a 9 seed over 8 seed an upset, but I think the Arizona men have been undervalued all year and are legitimate dark horses. That means they'll need to beat host Columbia at the Super Regional and then top seed Ohio State in the quarterfinals. But with a close Super Regional loss to the Buckeyes last year and a win over Texas this year, they've shown what they are capable of.
The seventh-seeded Georgia women have looked great since their 4-3 road loss to Auburn at the end of March, so if the Bulldogs are healthy and can keep winning doubles points, they are very dangerous.
Julie Wrege, Tennis Recruiting Network
If undefeated Denver can get by Michigan State, the Pioneers may upset No. 12 Harvard in the second round. I look for the Georgia Bulldogs to defeat Wake Forest in Winston Salem. For a third upset, South Carolina has defeated Virginia early in the season, so the Gamecocks might upend No. 14 NC State and have a rematch with UVA in the Super Regional.
The Auburn women enter the tournament under the radar, so the Tigers will come out of Berkeley and take on Georgia in Athens, if UGA can get by Florida State. The Tigers won a close contest over the Bulldogs in season, so I look forward to this rematch. Auburn is my women's dark horse.
Chris Halioris, College Tennis Ranks
The obvious dark horse picks have to be the Stanford men and the Texas A&M women. I realize A&M is seeded 13th, but with Carson Branstine back a serious run could be forthcoming. I think it's just a brutal round of 16 matchup at Chapel Hill and that could keep the Aggies from even making it to Stillwater. I don't know if I'd flat out call out any unseeded teams making it to the final site, but there are teams I think you have to watch out for that if they play at the top of their game could be dangerous. For the men, that would be (in order of likelihood in my eyes) Stanford, South Carolina, Alabama, Michigan and Arkansas. The Alabama and Arkansas callouts are obviously connected to the injury issues of TCU. For the women, I honestly have a hard time seeing any unseeded teams making a run to the final site but would say the best chances might lie with Georgia Tech, Duke and Auburn. But again, I find them all to be just a bit too much of a stretch.
For upsets, the first weekend I do think San Diego, Stanford, Michigan State, South Carolina, Alabama, Michigan and Georgia Tech all have great chances on the men's side. I'd be shocked if we don't see at least one and more likely two or three hosts go down this weekend. On the women's side, I think Duke at Tennessee is fascinating and I'll give Miami and South Carolina chances as well. But I really don't see near the likelihood of upsets for the women as I do the men.
Joey Dillon, The IX Newsletter
On the men's side, I think the obvious pick is South Carolina getting snubbed for a hosting bid and could find itself on the winning end against NC State, a surging Michigan State (over Harvard) as well as San Diego (over Texas A&M).
For the women, I think the most likely choice for Regionals upsets go to Auburn (over Cal), San Diego (over Southern Cal) and Duke (over Tennessee). For a "Cinderella run," I have the Pepperdine women in the Final Four and am interested in seeing how Florida State can ride its ACC title momentum. One team that I would like to see stun is the Georgia men as Manny Diaz says farewell to college tennis.
Which teams do you think will be holding the trophy on the final day as NCAA champion in both draws?
Colette Lewis: I actually got a prediction right last year, taking North Carolina to win the women's title, so I'm not inclined to abandon the Tar Heels now.
I said before the year began that I thought the Texas men were the best team if Siem Woldeab is healthy, and now that he's back in the lineup, I'm taking the Longhorns.
Julie Wrege: The Virginia men know what it takes to win a national championship and have to be annoyed after losing the ACC final, so I look for UVA to win back-to-back national championships.
The Oklahoma State women are undefeated and playing the NCAAs on their home courts, but I never count out Stanford. The Cardinal have a packed roster, so they have the talent to defeat OSU.
Chris Halioris: I said all along that I'd be taking Virginia again, and I honestly believe there's a solid chance the Cavaliers come home with a three-peat. That being said, with everything I've seen from Texas down the stretch, I can’t get away from picking the Longhorns. I think we have a three-team race with Virginia, Ohio State and Texas, with outside shots for TCU and Kentucky. But I fear the health of TCU may be an issue. I've made no bones about saying the match I want to see is Kentucky vs Ohio State just because those two teams are both ridiculous at 4-6 and I just wanna see them duke it out. Ohio State has the veteran edge in my mind and may just be too good, but we'll see. But my pick is Texas and Ohio State in the final with Texas winning.
For the women, it's been a magical run for Oklahoma State this year and how amazing would it be to cap it off with an undefeated season and national title at home. The Cowgirls have come really close to losing a few times this year, even being match points down in multiple matches, so it's not like they are unbeatable. However, as much as I love that story and want to pick the Cowgirls, the Stanford women just look so strong to me that I have to take them. I'd also give chances to Michigan and North Carolina.
Joey Dillon: I feel like I hope/say this every year, but I do think this will be Ohio State's year on the men's side. Ty Tucker deserves that outdoor crown.
For the women, I think - though given a tough draw - Oklahoma State will greatly benefit from the tournament being in Stillwater. The Cowgirls bring a great crowd and they are definitely hungry to finish the year undefeated.
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About Rhiannon Potkey
Rhiannon Potkey is a veteran sportswriter with more than two
decades of experience in journalism. Potkey has covered many
sports at many levels and has a passion for finding great stories.
Potkey has covered the U.S. Open, junior sectional and national
events, college conference championships and Davis Cup matches.
Potkey is currently Content Strategist for Tennis Recruiting. You
can reach Rhiannon by email at
[email protected].